Forecasting

Forecasting species’ responses to change

Using models to anticipate the future is vital to mitigate the impacts of environmental change on ecosystems. Yet most ecological models are one-off attempts to predict what ecosystems might be like in many years or decades. This makes it hard for decision-makers to use these models. It also favours models that are not easily scrutinised and improved. This project aims to employ an iterative cycle to forecast how species occurrences and abundances will change over short timescales, and will analyse forecasts to improve models so that we can continue to learn. This represents a new way of thinking in ecology that, like weather forecasting, has the power to advance our understanding of ecological processes.

The student will be based at The University of Queensland within the School of Veterinary Science, primarily supervised by Dr. Nicholas Clark. The candidate will work with a diverse group of international researchers. Additional support will be given by partners at the Ecological Forecasting Initiative and the Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, including assistance in computer-based data analysis, model building and scientific communication. The selected student will have the opportunity to work with all partners on this project but will be based at UQ.

This project will help develop the candidate’s skills in critical thinking, project management, data management and analysis, writing and communication. Expected applications of the project are incredibly diverse, meaning the student will be well prepared for a future career in research or with government and non-government land management, biosecurity or conservation agencies.